Churning Calculator
Adaptive · Grounded in your real CLV data · Built for sharp bettors
Bankroll
Bet Parameters
Negative = favorite (–110), positive = underdog (+150)Decimal: 1.9091 · Implied: 52.38%
Break-even: 52.38%
▲Edge: +1.182%
Realistic · Pro Grinder0.5%–1.9% — sustainable grind range
Staking Strategy?
11.00% of starting bankroll
Estimated Bets Required
769
to grow from $1,000 → $2,000
Total Handle Volume
$84,615
cumulative wagered
Bankroll Turnovers
84.6×
handle ÷ starting roll
Edge per Bet
+1.182%
on $110 avg stake
Expected Profit / Bet
$1
mean net per transaction
Risk of Ruin?
78.9%
HIGH VOLATILITY
> 20% ruin probability
Expected Turbulence?
Typical Worst Trough
$4,226
422.6% of starting bankroll
95th Pct Volatility Band
$5,698
outer envelope over 769 bets
Mental prep: Along this path you will very likely see a peak-to-trough drop of at least $4,226 before hitting your target. This is statistically expected — not a signal your edge is gone. Flat bettors feel drawdowns in absolute dollar terms. Do not deviate from strategy during the trough.
Methodology: Expected bets uses linear EV accumulation (profit goal ÷ (stake × edge)). RoR is the diffusion approx exp(−2eB₀/(X·σ²)). Drawdown uses the gambler's ruin reflection E[MDD] = X·σ²/(2e). CLV edge is derived from your bet journal's closing line comparisons. All figures are expectations — variance guarantees your actual path will differ.